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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.